Powered by Blogger.

Open Tuition


Section A
Big investment appraisal / cost of capital calculation
Managing interest rate risk
Section B
Managing foreign exchange risk
Capital asset pricing model
Written on quantitative easing

BPP
Role and responsibility towards stakeholders:
Ethical issues continue to appear regularly as an optional discussion question, normally with practical financial issues from elsewhere in the syllabus. The discussion question is normally one of the easier optional questions.
Economic value added and ratio analysis can also be used to appraise the performance of a company.
Advanced investment appraisal:
The compulsory question often features an NPV question with an analysis of risk and/or financing; it could easily be set in the context of an overseas investment.
Cost of capital calculations are regularly tested, make sure that you are comfortable adjusting betas for differences in gearing. Real options are also a popular theme.
Acquisitions and mergers:
This exam normally contains a question involving valuations which the examiner sees as a crucial part of the syllabus; valuations questions are also likely to cover strategic and financing issues.
Corporate reconstruction:
A question could also ask you to evaluate a management buy out i.e. whether a business will be worth more if it splits itself up.
Advanced risk management:
We would expect to see a numerical risk management question featuring either interest rate or exchange rate hedging; currency hedging was tested in June 2011.
Kaplan tips
•Net Present Value – including foreign currency cash flows
•Bond yields and bond values
•Risk adjusted WACC
•Interest rate hedging – options, futures and FRAs
First Intuition
Q1 International investment appraisal techniques focusing on risk management tools such as value at risk
Q2 Impact of WACC following hedging of interest rate risk
Q3 Company valuation-based scenario, possible MBO finance structure
Q4 Adjusted present value with link to real options and Black Scholes option pricing model
Q5 Written question on credit ratings and difficulties of raising debt finance in current credit markets. This could be linked to current challenges faced by Eurozone governments attempting to raise debt capital amidst falling credit ratings
Icount
Overseas Net Present Value
Financing incorporating change in Business Risk
Black Scholes
Corporate failure
Interest rate risk management
ATC
The paper is the level of a Master’s degree in finance. Expect the exam to be academically challenging – after all this is an optional paper and builds upon the foundations set in paper F9 Financial Management. Your existing knowledge will be useful – but will not be sufficient to obtain a pass at this advanced level. From December 2010 there was a new examiner, Shishir Malde. He has stated that he will take a less mathematical approach to finance than his predecessor (Bob Ryan, examiner December 2007 – June 2010). For an idea of Shishir’s style I would recommend the following:
• His P4 sample question on ACCA website
• The December 2010 and June 2011 exams
• “Old” syllabus paper 3.7 exam papers. Shish was assessor for paper 3.7 and has referred to the style of its examiner (Scott Goddard) as relevant http://www.accaglobal.com/students/acca/exams/professional_scheme/part3/paper3_7/exam_papers_professional/standard
Key areas of the syllabus:
• Role and responsibility towards stakeholders
• Domestic and international investment decisions
• Mergers and acquisitions
• Corporate re-organisation strategies
• Advanced treasury and risk management techniques
• Impact of macro economics and international financial institutions
• Emerging issues in finance and financial management
The whole syllabus is examinable but too large and detailed to be tested in a 3-hour paper. It would be tempting to try and predict what will be tested but this would be a dangerous
strategy. Be particularly careful if you missed paper F9 – you must fill any gaps in your knowledge e.g. regarding cost of capital calculations. You don’t need to buy the F9 materials, just refer to ATC International’s P4 study system (sessions 2-4)
The two compulsory questions in section A of the exam will cover significant issues relevant to the senior financial manager and each will be set in the form of a case study and contain a mix of computational and discursive elements. Candidates may be asked to provide answers in a specified form such as a short report or board memorandum – professional marks will be available. Section B questions are designed to provide a more focused test of the syllabus. One question in section B will be wholly discursive
Candidates will be provided with a formulae sheet as well as present value, annuity and standard normal distribution tables. The normal distribution tables may be required for:
• the Black Scholes option pricing model (and variants upon it),
• estimation of the probability of default on corporate debt,
• the calculation of VaR (Value at Risk).
Candidates are advised to bring a scientific calculator – logarithms and exponential constants are required for the Black Scholes model.
Relevant articles:
• “Risk management” – in which the new examiner discusses whether firms should hedge their risks.
• “Toxic assets” – which discusses the nature of CDO’s (Collateralized Debt Obligations)
• “How lenders set their rates” – which covers structural debt models i.e. analysing the level and volatility of assets (or, even better, cash) to estimate the probability of default on corporate debt and hence to calculate the appropriate credit spread for the firm.
• “Modified Internal Rate of Return” – which addresses a limitation of traditional IRR in assuming that project returns can be reinvested at the IRR itself. MIRR makes the more realistic assumption that project returns can be reinvested at the firm’s hurdle rate i.e. cost of capital.
• “Application of option pricing to valuation of firms” – which explains how Robert Merton applies the Black Scholes Model to value the equity of firms that cannot be easily valued using traditional Free Cash Flow models e.g. high growth start-ups or firms at risk of default. Merton views equity investors as having a call option over the firm’s assets, with the exercise price and time to expiry being the redemption value and time to maturity of the firm’s liabilities.
In the traditional manufacturing sector the assets tend to be higher than liabilities and the option has significant intrinsic value – hence investors have a lot to lose and are risk averse, as assumed in traditional finance theory. However in the banking sector assets tend to be close to liabilities, hence investors have little to lose and encourage excessive risk taking by the bank’s employees (themselves driven by large potential bonuses). If the gamble pays off the assets rise above liabilities and the investors take a large gain, if the gamble fails they walk away under the protection of limited liability.
Exam Tips
• Be sure to practice calculations on the Black Scholes model – although the formulae are provided the abbreviations must be memorized and some skill is required to crunch the numbers under time pressure. Also be prepared to use the Black Scholes model to value options embedded within company projects – Real Options Pricing Theory.
• Be aware of what is going on in the world economy – read quality newspapers such as http://www.cfo.com/ and http://www.economist.com
• Be aware of the rise (and recent fall) in securitisation and credit derivatives Debt can be packaged and resold as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), these can then be chopped up into different “tranches” of risk known as Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDO), the holder of the CDO can then use a credit default swap (CDS) to transfer that risk onwards. Risk can be packaged, repackaged and transferred – but does not disappear, as the global financial crises has shown (although quality press such as “The Economist” had been warning for many years of the dangers of securitisation and credit derivatives, particularly when combined with a property bubble).
• One of the banker’s trusted tools was VaR (Value at Risk) – the potential loss in value of a portfolio at a given level of confidence. The financial crisis has exposed the limitations of VaR – (i) actual volatility of asset prices turned out to be much higher than during recent history (ii) in times of crisis the correlation between asset classes becomes high, reducing the benefits of diversification (iii) VaR modelling was based on the assumption that returns follow the “bell shape” of the normal distribution, in the real world returns are more likely to follow a distribution with “fat tails” i.e. large price falls (and rises) occur more frequently than predicted by the normal distribution. Calculation of VaR was examined in December 2009 – the discussion above puts it into the context of the global financial crisis.
Exam Technique:
• Do not try to pass the exam by only performing calculations (or by only making discussion). Balance your time according to the mark allocations.
• In calculations show your workings and write your assumptions. In an exam at this level there will rarely be a unique “correct” answer, particularly in subjective areas such as business valuation. The examiner and his marking team are flexible – just show them that you can make a reasonable attempt and they will be sympathetic – perfection is not expected
• When asked to comment upon your calculations do not be afraid to do so even if you think your calculations contain errors – you can still get maximum marks for comments. If you could not perform the required calculation then write an assumed result and comment upon that.
• Structure your comments using sub-headings and bullet points (but write a full sentence after each bullet). If asked for a report format then obviously be more formal i.e. introduction, main body, conclusion, appendix – but bullet points can still be used within the report to keep clarity.
• Do not throw away the professional marks available in section A
• Give real life examples where appropriate to support your comments – extra marks may be awarded
• Generous marks are often available in requirements (a), (b) for performing relatively straightforward calculations (e.g. estimating WACC) or basic discussion (e.g. suggesting various sources of debt finance). Later requirements may ask for something very complex – but only for a few marks. If you pick up the easier marks where available and at least make an attempt at the more complex parts then you will be awarded a pass.
EXP
Paper P4 December 2011 Exam Tips:The paper is very time-pressured. This means that to do well one needs to exercise good time management and to start every question in order to score marks quickly (remember, the law of diminishing returns applies to the accumulation of marks).Also make sure to answer the discursive parts of questions with full substantive answers which correspond to the questions. Read the questions carefully.The areas covered range right across the syllabus. Do not try to anticipate what will or will not be covered. Be prepared to tackle any topic. Be sure to cover qualitative topics, such as corporate governance models and an understanding of the CFO’s role in the corporation. Don’t forget environmental and ethics themes as well. Discursive answers earn marks as well!Clear presentation wins marks: Be organisedin your answer. Remember that Professional-level papers award “professional marks” which are given based on the presentational aspects of an answer (such as a report, letter or memo). Attention to such aspects can yield valuable additional marks.As a checklist of topics, make sure you are comfortable working with the following areas :
• International investment appraisal decisions: This means not only NPVand IRR(and MIRR) calculations, but also determining projected foreign exchange rates and making mangerialdecisions regarding investments based on strategic, ethical and non-financial factors);
• Capital structure: The relationship between risk and return, and expressing this via equity/asset betas, using CAPM, calculating WACCand understanding the treatment of business/financial risks –in other words, Paper F9is assumed knowledge!;
• Valuations: This means not only DCFcalculations, but also understanding the strategic/qualitative arguments behind making a bid for another company in an M&A-type situation, including financing considerations;
• Understanding Black-Scholesremains relevant, particularly in the context of using real options when analyzing projects;
• Reconstruction/Reorganisationschemes: Make sure you adhere to a standard approach in tackling such questions. It is too late to think about general approach to such questions when you are already in the exam;
• Economic Value Added: Check the ACCAwebsite for the technical article treating this subject to an exam standard;
• Financial hedging: Derivatives are almost certain to appear in some form, possibly as part of a larger question touching on different topics of the syllabus; make sure you have the “ground-rules” worked out in what hedging strategy to adopt if a company is long/short a currency or a borrower/depositor in the interest rate market.
• Also, the current crisis in finance continues to provide many possibilities for new questions. Be sure to checkout the ACCAtechnical articles written for P4during the last year.

BPP
Q1 Statutory interpretation
Q2 Formation of a contract – consideration or intention
Q3 Tort of negligence – how the duty of care is breached
Q5 Debentures and charges
Q6 Appointment/termination of directors
Q7 Employment law – the employment contract/relationship
Other likely topics – breach of contract and remedies, company insolvency and Insider Dealing.

Kaplan tips
English Legal System
Tribunals
Human Rights Act
Contract Law
Acceptance/postal rule
Consideration
Torts
Breach of Duty
Employment Law
Redundancy
Remedies
Fraudulent Behaviour
Money Laundering
Insider Dealing
Company Law
Different Types of Directors
Voluntary Liquidation

First Intuition
Sources of law
Offer and acceptance
Contract terms
The law of torts
Employment law
Partnerships
Corporations & separate legal personality
Director
Company meetings and resolutions
Fraudulent behaviour

Icount
•Contract breach
•Employment tests
•Company articles and memorandum
•Corporate governance
•Loan capital
•Limited liability

Open Tuition

Numbers in brackets indicate question to practice from BPP Revision kit
Precedent, ratio and obiter (6)
Consideration (24)
Terms (28)
Lifting the veil (63)
Resolutions and meetings (84)
Redundancy – explanation and rules (48
Auditors – qualifications, duties and powers (94 and 95)
Invitation, offer, counter-offer, scenario
Directors’ appointment and removal (88)
Alteration of Articles and binding force (69 and 70)
Compulsory and voluntary winding-up (98)
Shares and debentures (75)
Bribery Act ( Student Accountant article )

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F4 English

Q1 Criminal law, civil law, arbitration December 7
Q2 Lifting the veil June 8
Q3 Meetings Pilot paper
Q4 Corporate governance – auditors December 7
Q5 Self-employed or employed June 10
Q6 Damages, measurement and remoteness June 9
Q7 Insolvent liquidation December 7
Q8 Treasury shares – new to syllabus
Q9 Intention to create legal relations December 7
Q10 Bribery – new to syllabus

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F4 Global

Q1 Criminal law, civil law, arbitration December 7
Q2 Lifting the veil June 8
Q3 Meetings Pilot paper
Q4 Corporate governance – auditors December 7
Q5 Sale of goods, anticipatory breach December 8 / June 9
Q6 INCOTERMS – the two new ones
Q7 Insolvent liquidation December 7
Q8 Treasury shares – new to syllabus
Q9 Sale of goods, passing of risk December 9
Q10 Bribery – new to syllabus

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F5

Activity Based Costing
Cost volume profit analysis
Planning and Operational Variances
Budgets – mainly written, but with preparation of a flexed budget and commenting on it
Financial and non-financial performance measures (with main emphasis on non-financial)

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F7

Question 1, Consolidated satement of Income, subsidiary and associate,
mid-year acquisition, share for share exchange, nci based on share price,
fair value adjustment, intra group sales and pup, 5 mark chat – exclusion
of subsidiary from consolidation
Question 2, Usual question 2, preparation of financial statements,
Financial Position, Income, Comprehensive Income, Changes in Equity from a
trial balance
Question 3, Report on financial performance – possibly a simple cash flow
included
Question 4, Framework, possible element of reliabilty, relevance, faithful
representation
Question 5, Development expenditure or a complex asset depreciation

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F8

1 Inventory count.
2 Nature of an assurance assignment/internal audit
3 Going concern and analytical procedures
4 Computer assisted audit techniques
5 Contingent liabilities

ACCA Exam tips for Paper F9

1 a) Investment appraisal – lease v buy decision
b) Written on replacement
2 a) economic order quantity calculation
b) cash budget
3 a) Capital asset pricing model (ungearing an equity beta)
b) foreign exchange risk management – forward rates and money markets
4 a) calculation of effect of raising finance (i) from equity and (ii) from debt on the earnings per share, interest cover, and gearing ratio of a company
b) written on other ways of raising finance.

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P1

(Not in any particular sequence)
1 Different contributors to corporate governance ( internal auditors,
external auditors, non-executive directors )
2 Ethics, ethical dilemma, deontology / teleology, Kohlberg
3 Board sub-committees, unitary board cf two-tiered board
4 Role of risk manager, risk committee, Mendelow
Any of the questions could possibly include a computational element – so
TAKE YOUR CALCULATOR INTO THE EXAM ROOM

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P2

1) Complex group – question Rod ( adapted past exam question ), or
Piecemeal acquisition / partial disposal – question Beth ( December 2007 )
or Base Group ( adapted past exam question )
2) Management commentary – question 52 in Kaplan revision kit
3) IFRS 10, 11, 12 and 13 – no past exam question – check the OpenTuition course notes
4) a question on “Various IASs / IFRSs” – many examples from past exams
5) Entity reconstruction – no past exam question – check the OT course notes
Any one, including question 1, could ask for “special” style – report,
memorandum, email or even letter! So make sure you answer in appropriate
style.

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P3

1 Strategic position and analysis; corporate parenting
2 Communicating mission and core values (see recent ACCA SA article)
3 Project gateways, project lifecycle and project initiation document
4 Expected values/decision tree. Process improvement
5 Benchmarking

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P4

Section A
Valuation of a business (for acquisition) – suggesting a range of values
(part including present value of cash flows requiring calculation of the discount rate to use with CAPM involved)
Foreign exchange risk management (forward rates/money markets/futures/options)
Section B
Option pricing
Written question on the European debt crisis
Portfolio theory including written on international diversification

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P5

1 Critical success factors and KPIs
2 Activity based costing, ABB and ABM
3 Transfer pricing
4 Economic value added
5 Performance Prism and corporate failure

ACCA Exam tips for Paper P7

1. Group audits
2. Material misstatement risk (article)
3. Non-audit services
4. Standard Q3 – matters to be considered (ethical, professional, practical, accounting);
state the evidence you should expect to find on the audit file
(or identify the procedures you would expect to be followed)
5. CAATs
6. Completion of audit (Make sure to read Lisa’s article from October 2011 student Accountant about “Completing the audit”)

Tips for ACCA Paper F6 “Taxation” (UK)

F6 is very predictable so no tips as such Practise as many exam standard questions as you can. Make sure you do to time.
After the 15 minute reading time you have 1.8 minutes per mark. If a question is split between part (a) 10 marks and part (b) 10 marks then only spend 18 minutes on part (a) and then move on to part (b).
Look at all the requirements of the question, can you answer an easy parts first, for example one part maybe standalone and on something very straightforward, so do this part first You do not have to answer the questions in the order they are set, if question 5 is the easiest do this one first.
Question 3 will be the hardest so leave this until last but make sure you leave 36 minutes to answer it. Do not panic if you can’t remember something in a question, don’t spend too much time trying to remember it, have a go or even guess. Then you can move on to other parts of the question. Above all you need 50% to pass, so find the marks you can do. There will always be more than 50% of the question which is examining core areas of the syllabus, only a few marks will be fringe areas, but you do not have to worry about these as you can find the 50 marks you need to pass.

RELEVANT TO ACCA QUALIFICATION PAPER P3
© 2012 ACCA
Strategic planning in an age of turbulence
For an organisation, turbulence can be defined as unpredictable and swift
changes in its external or internal environments that affect its performance.
Internal events usually limit their effect to the organisation in which they occur.
External events are much more wide-reaching, often affecting all organisations
or all organisations within an industry sector. These events would often be
identified, though not necessarily predicted, through a PESTEL or Porter’s 5
Forces analysis.
Examples of turbulence
External events Internal events
The banking crisis  Loss of a major customer or contract
The Euro crisis  Loss of key staff
The ‘Arab spring’ Liquidity problems
The Japanese earthquake and tsunami A discovery
Rapid changes in technology Taking over another company
A decade ago, economic growth, interest rates, the impact of the internet and
so on were moving in fairly stable patterns. Of course, even during this period
of relative stability, music companies were trying to work out how to respond
to MP3 downloads, and a company like Kodak was trying to tackle the impact
of digital cameras. But the environment as a whole didn’t spring too many
nasty surprises and businesses felt confident to plan for the future. How
different the last few years have been, as shown above in the examples of
external events. Furthermore, once turbulence is established it can be some
time before things settle down again. So we are now, undoubtedly, in the
middle of a turbulent period.
Our current environment is not uniquely turbulent and there are many
examples of turbulent periods from the last 100 years or so: World War I, the
great depression of the 1930s, World War 2, social changes in the 1960s, the
disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, events following the attack on the World
Trade Center. Turbulence seems to be inevitable, though few people recognise
that, perhaps because its cause and effect cannot be predicted in any detail.
But we know something unexpected always happens. The inevitability of
turbulence should have very important implications for how organisations
should plan for their long-term survival.2
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
Knowns and unknowns
All planning requires us to peer into the future as far as we can, and based on
what we see and our forecasts we devise plans. However, there is a huge range
in what we are capable of foreseeing and with what reliability. It is useful to
divide future events into three classes, as did Donald Rumsfeld, the former US
Secretary of Defense. He was derided at the time but – at least in this matter –
he made perfect logical sense, though somewhat clumsily expressed:
‘There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know
there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we
do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know
we don't know.’
• The known knowns – for example, an organisation might know that its
drug patents will expire in three years, or that it will be relocating in six
months. These events are relatively easy for planners to handle and to
build into budgets and objectives.
• The known unknowns – for example, an organisation might know that its
competitors are going to launch an important new product but it is not
sure exactly what the characteristics of that product will be. (Think of the
launch of the Apple iPad: everyone knew something was coming, but no
one outside Apple knew any details.) Or, organisations might know that
interest rates will rise but are not sure when or by how much. These
types of unknown can be handled by making estimates and possibly by
assigning probabilities to the various outcomes. Decision trees, expected
values, and sensitivity analysis are all very useful techniques.
• The unknown unknowns – do you know when there will be a powerful
earthquake that flattens the city of London? (Of course, by definition, we
don’t know if there will ever be one.) In 2007, no one knew, or
suspected, that Lehman Brothers would fail. Unknown unknowns cannot
be planned for, but organisations should assume that they will happen
and should therefore build into their plans robustness to protect
themselves against negative events and an ability to exploit positive
ones.
These unknown unknowns are by far the most difficult to manage. They are
sometimes termed ‘black swan events’ (1) because before black swans were
discovered in Australia, no one could imagine the existence of a swan that
wasn’t white. Black swan theory was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain:
• the huge impact of unpredictable, rare events that are outside our
normal experience and without historical precedent
• the non-computability of the effect of these rare events because there is
no data on which to base calculations3
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
• the psychological bias that blinds us to the possibility and impact of rare
events. We tend to assume that things (such as property price increases)
will continue in a predictable way.
The phrase ‘black swan event’ is therefore used as a metaphor for the frailty
and limitation of any system of thought and planning: bounded rationality. This
means that we cannot know all-important factors that will affect the future
(and, anyhow, do not have time to evaluate them). We are, in practice, likely to
suffer from bounded rationality even with the known knowns because of
imperfect research or pressure of time. However, in a period of turbulence,
more events will be in the last two categories and this makes planning more
difficult. So how should organisations respond to the threat of unknowns while
still trying to move forward in terms of gaining competitive advantage?
Planning approaches
Three approaches to strategy are summarised in Johnson, Scholes and
Whittington’s strategic lenses:
(1) Strategy as experience. Here, strategic development is the adaptation
of past strategies based on experience. In this view, strategy is greatly
influenced by taken for granted assumptions, one of which is that the
world will advance in a gradual, linear and relatively predictable way.
(2) Strategy as design. Here, strategy development is a process of logical
and rational thought. Developments that arise are evaluated, resources
allocated and specific strategies are followed.
(3) Strategy as ideas. Strategies are needed to cope with uncertain,
unpredictable and changing environments.
There are analogies here with a suggestion made by Professor Vijay
Govindarajan – namely that organisations should place their planning projects
into three boxes:
• Short term – projects here are about managing the present and would
include process improvement, product and market development. These
projects are in response to linear (therefore non-turbulent) changes in an
industry.
• Medium-term – projects here concern ‘selectively forgetting the past’
and they are driven by non-linear changes such as the Internet and the
‘Arab Spring’. Projects here are aimed at moving into areas
neighbouring the organisation’s core activities.
• Long term – entirely new business ventures. Very speculative, and based
on many assumptions.
It is important to realise that the three approaches in each model are not
mutually exclusive and that all three will be carried on in parallel:
• It is important that the present is managed carefully and making use of
experience and expected developments.4
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
• It is also important that organisations move forward steadily and adapt
to changing opportunities.
• At the same time, organisations should be aware of, or should attempt
to predict, more radical longer-term changes. Although those changes
might not be in place for 10–20 years, work to prepare for them might
have to begin now.
In relatively stable times, a company might divide its projects and efforts over
the three categories in the ratio 50/30/20. Note that even under conditions of
stability, substantial effort should be given to long-term projects.
In turbulent times, companies that are panicked will have projects in category
1 only. They become obsessed about clinging to the safe and familiar, and
important longer-term projects might be abandoned. However, a better
approach would be to keep projects in all three categories, but perhaps reduce
the number in each. Reducing the number in each provides some safety
because less investment spent on projects provides something of a buffer in
turbulent conditions. However, this approach allows attention still to be paid to
the long-term future of the organisation by insisting that longer-term projects
are always important.
Responsive, robust and resilient
Kotler and Caslione (2) address the problem of chaotic or turbulent
environments. They suggest that organisations need to plan to be:
• responsive – the ability to react quickly to change
• robust – the ability to withstand stresses and to cope well with change
without losing functionality
• resilient – the ability to rebound to a position of success.
Consider human resources management when there is a severe and
unexpected turndown in business. HR management would need to be:
• responsive – it might be necessary to block all hiring, to ban overtime, to
freeze pay and to make redundancies
• robust – care is needed when choosing who should go so as not to
jeopardise functionality; care is also needed to preserve motivation and
to try to keep good staff
• resilient – instead of redundancies, it might be better to ask employees
to move to shorter working weeks so that valuable talent is not lost for
ever. Then, when the economy recovers, the company is ready to bounce
back immediately without a delay for recruitment.
Practical approaches
Flexibility
Responsiveness, robustness and resilience are really an expansion of the 5
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
concept of flexibility. It is essential to try to build flexibility into any strategic
plan – even in relatively stable conditions. One of the standard criticisms of the
rational planning approach is that it lacks or inhibits flexibility (though that is
more a criticism of how the plan is used rather than a criticism of planning
itself). Examples of building in flexibility include:
• leaving headroom in any financing plan. For example, arranging lines of
credit
• having break-clauses or extension options in lease agreements
• building in the ability to upgrade or extend operations
• use of currency options
• buying from a range of suppliers. For example, some companies that
relied on just-in-time inventory had problems after the Japanese
earthquake because their supplies were quickly exhausted. Now
manufacturers try to build flexibility into their supply chains
• stand-by and disaster recovery plans for IT systems
• a mix of permanent and sub-contracting staff
• pilot operations to gain experience in new ventures. If successful the
operations can be extended and can make use of experience gained
• joint ventures to spread risk and finance, and to make use of a wide
range of expertise.
Scenario planning
Scenario planning attempts to take into account the many things that could
happen and from those to build a number of believable, alternative futures. Not
all the events that could happen are likely to happen together, so those
permutations can be eliminated. For example, if an election is likely and we
believe that a change in government would lead to a cut in public spending and
a drop in interest rates, then there is no point considering a scenario of the
new government reducing public expenditure and increasing interest rates as
that is an implausible scenario. This greatly helps to reduce the number of
‘universes’ we have to consider and allows the organisation to concentrate on
the few most likely ones and plan its response to each of the plausible
scenarios.
Interest
rate = 5%
Interest
rate = 2%
Government 1
Lower public spending
Implausible
combination
Scenario 1
Government 2
Maintained public spending
Scenario 2 Implausible
combination
Sensitivity analysis
Investigate the effect of assumptions about the future changing. Investigate
sensitive assumptions more to get greater assurance. Look for ways of
defusing high risk areas.6
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
Decision trees
Decision trees can be used to map out the various patterns of events that can
occur. Expected values can be used to evaluate the possibilities, or if
probabilities are too difficult to estimate, the possibilities can be examined
under conditions of uncertainty.
Note, however, that although expected values are often calculated, this
approach to strategic planning is almost always inappropriate. Expected value
calculations reduce detail into a single figure, that is usually not ‘expected’ to
occur, and this is the reverse of what is required to encourage responsiveness,
robustness and resilience. All of these require attention to detail.
For example, Quandary Co could spend $8m and then either have earnings of
$20m with a probability of 0.6 or could make a loss of $5m with a probability
of 0.4. Let us assume that the project lasts 10 years and that all financial flows
are in present value terms.
Outcome Probability $m
1 0.6 20
2 0.4 (5)
The expected value of this project is:
-8 + 0.6 x 20 + 0.4 x (-5) = $2m
However, this positive result conceals the 40% chance that the company will
have an adverse cash flow of $13m ($8m cost and then a $5m loss). Often,
that type of adverse outcome could lead an organisation into liquidation, so
ignoring the downside risk (and there might also be additional unknown ones)
is certainly not a robust methodology.
Furthermore, this approach, as presented, does not show responsiveness or
resilience. Cash flows and probabilities are both subject to change and the
company seems to be signing up to a 10-year project that is all or nothing.
Although sometimes the nature of a project will mean there is little or no
flexibility, it is beholden on companies to look for flexibility.
Now assume that further investigation shows that the project can be broken
down into two, consecutive five-year blocks. The initial cost will be $5m and
this will generate half of the original amounts: either a profit of $10m or a loss
of $2.5m. Assume that after the first five years have passed, the company will
have gained information that allows it to predict with certainty what the
outcomes of the second five years will be. This is not unreasonable as the
passage of time allows more information to be collected that can be used for 7
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
further analysis. Also, events that had been a long way off are now closer and
easier to predict. Therefore, the income figures shown below for the second
five years are not known at the outset but are known after the first five years.
If the company wants to continue after five years, expenditure of another $4m
will be needed to generate the same earnings as would have been earned with
the original one-stage investment. ($3m to bring the cost up to the original
$8m plus a premium of $1m for the delay).
Alternatively, enhancement expenditure of $8m would then increase earnings
to $12m or $15m depending on the state of the world economies (this will be
known after five years). This possibility wasn’t even suspected at the very start
of the project, but has now opened up.
If Quandary didn’t wish to invest further funds after five years, the project
could be abandoned at the end of the first five years for no further cost. If the
outcome had been poor in the first five years, it will be poor in the second five
also, irrespective of any attempt at enhancement.
The choices and outcomes are now:
The company’s game plan could now be as follows:
(1) Assess the likely outcomes from the first five years. As far as has been
forecast, this will either be a net profit of $5m (10 – 5) or a loss of
$7.5m (-2.5 -5). The expected value of the first five years alone would
result in break-even (0.6 x 5 – 0.4 x 7.5 = 0). Within that figure there is
a high chance the loss will occur and the company should have a good
hard look at whether it is robust enough to stand a loss of $7.5m (plus
a bit more for headroom).
p = 0.6
Earnings =
 $10m 
p = 0.4  
Loss =
-$2.5m D
Initial
cost,
$5m
Abandon
Years 0–5              Years 6–10
A
C
Abandon
Cost, $8m, earnings $12m or $15m
 Loss = -$2.5m
Abandon
      Cost, $4m, earnings $10m
B8
STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AN AGE OF TURBULENCE
APRIL 2012
© 2012 ACCA
(2) If Quandary Co embarks on the project and makes a loss in the first five
years, then, to avoid further loss, the project can be abandoned. This
option provides responsiveness.
(3) If Quandary Co embarks on the project and makes a profit in the first
five years, the company can reassess what it should do then. Its
choices are:
• abandon the project. This could be done if the economy then
looked very poor so that the company didn’t want to risk a
further $4m or didn’t feel robust enough to do so
• spend $4m to earn $10m; a profit of $6m
• spend $8m in the hope of earning either $12m or $15m; profits
of $4m or $7m. (The company would, in fact, presumably not
spend $8m to earn $12m because that profit of $4m is less
than the profit of $6m that the first option gives.)
These provide responsiveness and also resilience because Quandary Co has
been able plan to spend to rebound if economies improve.
Of course, as it turned out, none of these happened. A black swan was
sucked into the cooling inlet pipe of the local nuclear power station causing
a meltdown of the core. All homes and businesses, including Quandary Co,
within a radius of 20 km had to be abandoned.
Ken Garrett is a freelance lecturer and writer
References
(1) The Black Swan, Taleb NN, Penguin, 2010
(2) Chaotics, Kotler and Caslione, Chaotics, Amacom, 2009

RELEVANT TO ACCA QUALIFICATION PAPERS P3 AND P5
© 2012 ACCA
Benchmarking
Benchmarking can be defined as: 'The establishment, by the collection of data,
of comparators that allow relative levels of performance to be identified.’
Benchmarking can be thought of as a scientific way of setting objectives that
will act as targets before and during the operating period, and comparators
during and after the period. The phrase ‘by the collection of data’ is crucial:
anyone can establish objectives without the collection of data, but these will be
of little use because they are likely to be arbitrary and without any validity.
Benchmark data validates objectives.
The sources of data that can be used include internal data (for example,
comparing the results of different branches), data about other companies (for
example, those in the same industry) and government data (for example, data
about employee sick days). We will examine the sources of data in more detail
later.
Benchmarking and the strategic planning process
Benchmarking can be used in all three steps of the classical, rational model of
strategic planning:
• Assess the strategic position (internal and external factors)
Frequently, strategic planning starts by defining the mission or mission
statement. For example, BMW states that its mission is: ‘The BMW
Group is the world’s leading provider of premium products and premium
services for individual mobility.’
So, without comparison through benchmarking, how does BMW know
that it is delivering premium products and services?
Assessment of an organisation’s current strategic position can be
summarised in a SWOT analysis. However, the use of comparators is
inherent in a SWOT analysis: if you can say that something is a
‘weakness’ or a ‘strength’ you must be carrying out some sort of
comparison when making that value judgement. Similarly with
opportunities and threats. A factor is a threat to us only because it is
better or stronger than we are in that area – whether it is an organisation
that is better financed, or one that produces products more cheaply, or a
technological development that promises a better product in terms of
cost-benefit, or an organisation that has a stronger brand name.